Guide to gambler fallacy

The gambler’s fallacy, sometimes known as ‘the fallacy of the maturity of chances’ relates to the false belief that a run of results with seemingly rare probability will correct itself over time.

Explaining arbitrage

Arbitrage is a strange-sounding noun describing a betting system that ‘guarantees’ a small profit on certain wagers. It is time-consuming and rarely gives big returns, but it does work, though not without exceptions.

Using the Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical guide devised for people who bet with their brains more than their gut. Essentially, this money management principle helps punters spread bets to improve their chances of winning over time.

Value betting: improving your odds

Although many punters bet on a ‘gut feel’ or any number of other unscientific influences, the best way to decide which football team to back comes from an assessment of each bet’s ‘value’.

Why you should bet on what you know

In this guide to simple gambling for beginners, we raise the notion that betting beginners should bet on teams, games and leagues that they know something about.