Value betting: improving your odds

Although many punters bet on a ‘gut feel’ or any number of other unscientific influences, the best way to decide which football team to back comes from an assessment of each bet’s ‘value’.

Stack of coins

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Value betting is a simple mathematical way of calculating whether the odds offered by a bookmaker are reflected in your team’s chances of winning.

By assessing the true chance of a win and comparing the result to bookmakers’ odds, punters can get a good idea of what’s worth a flutter. The idea is to get to a position where the rewards of winning outweigh the risk of losing.

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Here is the process step-by-step:

•    Work out, to the best of your ability, the mathematical likelihood of the outcome happening. Take into account form, injuries, opposition, home or away etc.

•    Research your favourite bookies and learn the best price for the match you want to bet on. Get the best decimal price (it should look like 1.72, 2.34) as this makes your calculations easier.

•    Multiply the percentage chance of a win against the decimal price, so: 0.5 (50 per cent) times 1.72 (the decimal price) = 0.86.

•    A score of one or more (1.18 for example) is described as having ‘value’, and is likely to be a good bet.

The more facts and figures you can throw into your calculations the better. You should have access to football statistics and team form, follow your league closely and, ideally, a betting log with a history of 50 bets or more.

Of course, using this system (like any other) is nowhere near 100 per cent fool proof and you might find that it recommends you don’t bet in most instances (bookmakers tend to have an edge when it comes to value).

You might see the odds first but no matter how tempting they are, don’t place a bet until you’ve done the maths or you might live to regret it.

Heard enough? Then visit our offers page for some great free bets!

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1 Response » to “Value betting: improving your odds”

  1. [...] Decimal odds are also the easiest way to calculate whether your bets have value or not. You can read about calculating value here. [...]

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